Kentucky Derby Odds and Betting Tips – Who Are the Main Favourites?

The 149th Kentucky Derby is all set to take place on Saturday, featuring 20 of the finest equine athletes vying for the prestigious Run for the Roses title at Churchill Downs. A winner will emerge in just two minutes, adorned with a blanket of 554 red roses and forever remembered as a true champion in the sport.

2023 Kentucky Derby post position, horse, trainer, jockey, odds 

1. Hit Show, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 35-1

2. Verifying, Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione, 18-1

3. Two Phil’s, Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry, 8-1

4. Confidence Game, Keith Desormeaux, James Graham, 20-1

5. Tapit Trice, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 6-1

6. Kingsbarns, Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz, 11-1

7. Reincarnate, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, 15-1

8. Mage, Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano, 20-1

9. Skinner, John Shirreffs, Juan Hernandez, 20-1 SCRATCHED

10. Practical Move, Tim Yakteen, Ramon Vazquez, SCRATCHED

11. Disarm, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 25-1

12 Jace’s Road, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 41-1

13. Sun Thunder, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 35-1

14. Angel of Empire, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 6-1

15. Forte, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 7-2

16. Raise Cain, Ben Colebrook, Gerardo Corrales, 39-1

17. Derma Sotogake, Hidetaka Otonashi, Christophe Lemaire, 8-1

18. Rocket Can, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 37-1

19. Lord Miles, Saffie Joseph Jr., Paco Lopez, 30-1, SCRATCHED

20. Continuar, Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 50-1 SCRATCHED

21. Cyclone Mischief, Dale Romans, TBA, 43-1

22. Mandarin Hero, Terunobu Fujita, Kazushi Kimura, 27-1

23. King Russell, Ron Moquett, Rafael Bejarano, 44-1

Top Contenders and Their Odds

The Favorites

• Forte (3-1): The current favorite, trained by Todd Pletcher and winner of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.
• Tapit Trice (5-1): Another strong contender, also trained by Pletcher, known for stamina and

Impressive race results, including the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes victory.

• Angel Of Empire (8-1): Trained by Brad Cox and winner of the Arkansas Derby, displaying great closing speed.

The Contenders

• Derma Sotogake (10-1): A Japan-based horse with a recent win in the UAE Derby, showcasing good speed and a strong front foot.
• Kingsbarns (12-1): The only undefeated horse entering the Derby, trained by Todd Pletcher, and winner of the Louisiana Derby.
• Two Phil’s (12-1): A previous winner at the Street Sense Stakes, demonstrating consistent performance.
• Verifying (15-1): Sired by Triple Crown winner Justify, this horse has great stamina and closing speed.
• Mage (15-1): A South Florida-based contender that secured second place in the Florida Derby, challenging Forte.

The Long Shots

• Confidence Game (20-1): Bred for distance, this horse won the Rebel Stakes and has the potential for an upset.
• Disarm (30-1): Bred for this distance and ridden by Derby-winning jockey Joel Rosario.
• Reincarnate (50-1): Previously trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by three-time Derby-winning jockey John Velazquez, this horse has a strong front-running style.

Understanding the Pari-Mutuel System

To place successful bets, it is crucial to understand how horse racing odds work. A pari-mutuel system is used, meaning that bettors compete against one another. The more people bet on the same horse, the more potential winnings are divided. 

Therefore, your payout will be much larger if you bet on a long shot with fewer backers. This system ensures that odds are determined by the bettors themselves, with the odds changing throughout the week leading up to the race.

Types of Bets to Consider

While various types of bets can be placed on horse races, here are some of the most popular:

• Win: Betting on a specific horse to win the race.
• Place: Betting on a specific horse to finish either first or second.
• Show: Betting on a specific horse to finish in the top three.
• Exacta: Betting on the first and second-place finishers in the correct order.
• Trifecta: Betting on the first, second, and third-place finishers in the correct order.
• Superfecta: Betting on the first, second, third, and fourth place finishers in the correct order.

Betting Strategy: Trifecta Box

Since this year’s Derby is wide open, the author suggests placing a $1 trifecta with a five-horse box, which will cost $60. By choosing five horses and having three of them finish in the top three, you win. This bet allows for more flexibility in predicting the order of finish for the top three horses.

Factors to Consider When Betting

When placing bets on horses, there are several factors to take into account:

• Trainer and Jockey: A successful trainer and experienced jockey can significantly impact a horse’s performance in a race.
• Post Position: The starting gate position can influence the race’s outcome, as certain positions may provide a more advantageous start.
• Past Performance: Analyzing a horse’s performance in previous races can offer valuable insights into their form and potential.
• Track Conditions: The track’s state can affect a horse’s performance, with some horses performing better on different surfaces or in specific weather conditions.
• Pace and Running Style: The race’s overall pace and the horse’s preferred running style can impact the outcome.

Final Thoughts

The 2023 Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be an exciting and unpredictable race, with no clear favorite emerging from the pack. 

However, by understanding the pari-mutuel system, familiarizing yourself with various types of bets, and considering factors such as trainer, jockey, post position, and past performance, you can make informed bets and potentially see great returns on your investment. 

Whether you’re an experienced bettor or a newcomer to the sport, the thrill of the race and the possibility of an upset makes the Kentucky Derby an event not to be missed.