Punters looking for a horse to back in Europe’s richest race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, should look no further than Continuous, according to an AI prediction via Grosvenor Sport.
According to AI, the Aidan O’Brien trained Continuous fulfills all of the criteria that is required to win the Arc, which is “class, distance ability, form, trainer and jockey and international ability”.
Continuous was a fine winner of the St Leger at Doncaster on his last run and is currently an 11/2 third favourite with Grosvenor Sport to win at Paris-Longchamp on Sunday.
The St Leger proved Continuous’ form over the required 1m4f trip, was the latest Group One win to show his class and his second top win of the season.
He’s trained by O’Brien and will be under Ryan Moore, who combined to win the race in 2016 with Found, and should not have a problem making the trip to France having found form in Ireland and Britain.
Like Continuous, Place Du Carrousel also meets all of AI’s criteria of an Arc winner and at 20/1 could be an outsider that attracts the attention of punters.
Place Du Carrousel is trained by the race’s leading trainer, eight-time winner Andre Fabre and is in good form, has a Group One win under her belt and has form over the 1m4f trip.
French-trained Ace Impact is the 11/4 favourite to win Europe’s richest race, but has not won over 1m4f, while next in the market, 5/1 shot Hukum, is not partnered with a winning jockey or trainer in this race, something Jim Crowley and Owen Burrows will wish to change.
AI’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe criteria:
Class: Horses that compete in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe are usually among the best in the world in terms of their racing class. They often have impressive records in top-tier races.
Won a Group One: Ace Impact, Hukum, Continuous, Westover, Feed The Flame, Bay Bridge, Fantastic Moon, Place Du Carrousel, Simca Mille, Onesto, Sisfahan
Distance Ability: The race is run over a distance of approximately 1.5 miles (2400 meters), so horses need to have the stamina to handle this distance effectively.
Won over 1m4f: Hukum, Continuous, Westover, Feed The Flame, Bay Bridge, Fantastic Moon, Free Wind, Place Du Carrousel, Simca Mille, Onesto, Sisfahan, Haya Zark
Form: Horses that have shown consistent and strong form leading up to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe are highly sought after. They should have performed well in previous races, especially those at similar distances and on turf.
Won at least twice this season: Ace Impact, Hukum, Continuous, Feed The Flame, Fantastic Moon, Through Seven Seas, Place Du Carrousel, Simca Millle, Haya Zark
Trainer and Jockey: Horses are often associated with reputable trainers and jockeys who have a track record of success in major races. The skill and experience of the trainer and jockey can play a significant role in a horse’s performance.
Jockey or trainer won the Arc: Ace Impact, Continuous, Feed The Flame, Bay Bridge, Fantastic Moon, Free Wind, Place Du Carrousel, Haya Zark
International and French ability: The race attracts horses from around the world, so an ability to adapt to different racing conditions and competition styles is important.
Won in more than one country, or France: Ace Impact, Hukum, Continuous, Westover, Feed The Flame, Fantastic Moon, Free Wind, Place Du Carrousel, Simca Mille, Onesto, Haya Zark
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe odds via Grosvenor Sport
Ace Impact 11/4
Feed The Flame 8/1
Fantastic Moon 11/1
Bay Bridge, Through Seven Seas 12/1
Place Du Carrousel, Free Wind 20/1
Simca Mille 22/1
Mr Hollywood 40/1
Sisfahan, Haya Zark 100/1
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