Revealed: The formula for an Ascot champion
As the most prestigious event in the horse racing calendar gets underway, 888Sport has analysed the aspects of the champions of the sport to discover the most likely winner.
888Sport crunched the numbers, analysing data from the last 100 years of Ascot to discover the features most commonly shared by champion horses and their riders, including jockey place of birth, horse type, age, and colour.
Punters may do well to look for a bay-coloured stallion with an Irish jockey.
The name of the horse also factored into calculations – with winners over the last century being most commonly named after geographical locations.
Beginning with Tangiers in 1920, right through to last year’s Trip to Paris, it seems that invoking the name of a place is the popular choice of so many winners; with 19 horses in the past century making up almost a fifth of the honour roll.
From place names to places of birth, since 1996, Irish-born jockeys like Johnny Murtagh, Jamie Spencer and Graham Lee have led the charge at Ascot, with 15 champions hailing from the Emerald Isle in just 21 years, which indicates that those hoping for a winner could do worse than looking to the Republic of Ireland.
Prior to the 1990s, it was the Berkshire contingent who most commonly prevailed, with legends like Lester Piggott and Doug Smith taking the crown on a regular basis.
When it came to the horses, stallions were by far the most likely winners, with 71 out of 99 races won. Over the last 100 years a filly has only taken the title once, while a mare has been the victor just three times. From 1991 there seems to be more variety when it came to winning horses, with a gap of 12 years before a stallion was once again in the winners’ circle.
For further information about the data, see the 888Sport blog.